BioDiv-Support: Publications

Publications, reports and conference contributions from the BioDiv-Support project. 

Scientific articles

Improved simulation of precipitation with a new high-resolution climate model

Maps showing intensity of extreme hourly summer precipitation in Sweden
Intensity of extreme hourly summer precipitation in a currently available regional climate model (RCM, left), HCLIM at “convection-permitting” grid resolution (centre) and HIPRAD observations (right). Enlarge Image

As the climate changes, climate models with high horizontal grid resolution become increasingly important as a basis for decision making. A new generation of such models, so called “convection-permitting” climate models have shown superior performance in simulating important aspects of the climate including extremes. We have published the first long-term (1998-2018) simulation over Fenno-Scandinavia with the HCLIM regional convection-permitting climate model. The results are very promising, with HCLIM (when compared with observations), providing a more realistic representation of precipitation with respect to coarser-scale climate models. Specific improvements include an increased and more realistic occurrence of higher intensity events, an improved timing and amplitude of the diurnal cycle, and an improved relative occurrence of snowfall versus rain in the Scandinavian mountains. 

Learn more: Lind et al., 2019.

Lind P, Belušić D, Christensen OB, Dobler A, Kjellström E, Landgren O, Lindstedt D, Matte D, Pedersen RA, Toivonen E, Wang F (2020): Benefits and added value of convection-permitting climate modeling over Fenno-Scandinavia, Climate Dynamics 55, 1893-1912.

Heat wave promoting high ozone

Figure showing relationship between daily maximum ozone concentration and temperature in summer of 2018.
Relationship between daily maximum ozone concentration and temperature in the summer of 2018. Ozone increased by 0.9 ppb ⁰C-1 in this year. For the period 2013-2017 the corresponding figure was 0.4 ppb ⁰C-1. Enlarge Image

During the summer of 2018 large parts of Europe were affected by a long-lasting heat wave. Johansson et al (2020) showed that the heatwave conditions promoted high ozone concentrations in south-west Sweden. In comparison with the preceding 5-year period, it was also observed that the rate of increase in summer ozone concentration with temperature was stronger in 2018. A possible explanation for this pattern is that the dry conditions prevailing during the heatwave significantly reduced the stomatal uptake of ozone by vegetation, thus enhancing ground-level concentrations of ozone.

Learn more: Johansson et al., 2020

Johansson J.M., Watne Å.K., Karlsson P.E., Karlsson G.P., Danielsson H., Andersson C. & Pleijel H. 2020: The European heat wave of 2018 and its promotion of the ozone climate penalty in southwest Sweden. Boreal Env. Res. 25: 39–50. http://www.borenv.net/BER/pdfs/ber25/ber25-039-050.pdf

Mid-21st century Arctic shipping projected to cause negative impacts in the Nordic region

Arctic Ice Bergs
Arctic Ice Bergs Enlarge Image

International initiatives have successfully brought down the emissions from shipping in Emission Control Areas, thus reducing the associated negative impacts on environmental and human health. The question is if this is enough to mitigate the expected future increase in shipping activities. We have studied the impact of future shipping scenarios on air pollution exposure in the Arctic and the Nordic region.

From our air pollution exposure calculations, we estimate that 850 people die prematurely yearly in the Nordic region due to shipping. This shipping contribution is projected to decrease to 700 cases by 2050 in a business as usual air pollution scenario based on the ECLIPSE V5 emission inventory, while a heavy fuel oil ban would decrease the shipping-related premature deaths to 550. A high-growth scenario in arctic shipping, with no additional regulation and high growth leads to a small increase in shipping-related premature deaths (900).

Learn more: Geels et al., 2021.

Geels, C.,Winther, M., Andersson, C., Jalkanen, J.P., Brandt, J., Frohn, L., Im, U., Leung, W., Christensen, J. Projections of shipping emissions and the related impact on air pollution and human health in the Nordic region. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-1274

Reports

Sulfur in high-Alpine ice cores confirm the need for a high model resolution

The Alps
The Alps. Enlarge Image

Atmospheric chemical transport modelling of sulfate in precipitation at different high-Alpine sites shows that depending on the spatial model resolution (50 km or 12 km), concentrations either differ (50 km) or compare well (12 km) to observations extracted from ice cores. This shows that the high-resolution modelling in this project improves the representation of deposition in high altitude areas.

Learn more: PSI annual report 2020.

Conference contributions

Andersson, C., Engardt, M., Alpfjord Wylde, H. Long-term sulfur and nitrogen deposition to the Baltic Sea and surrounding terrestrial ecosystems based on fused measurements and modelling: a monthly reanalysis for the years 1983-2013. ITM 2019, Hamburg. poster presentation.

Andersson, C., Alpfjord Wylde, H., Bergström, R., Engardt, M., Langner, J., Karlsson, PE, Klingberg, J., Pleijel, H., Robertson, L. Changes to the northern latitude European vegetation exposure to ground-level ozone. ITM 2019. Oral presentation.

Andersson, Camilla, Rocio Alonso, Maurizio Bagnara, Danijel Belušić, Victoria Bermejo, Robert G. Björk, Mats P. Björkman, Augustin Colette, Florian Couvidat, Victoria Gil Alfonso, Ignacio Gonzalez, Thomas Hickler, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Erik Kjellström, Fredrik Lagergren, David Lindstedt, Fernando Martin, Paul Miller, Tinja Olenius, Håkan Pleijel, Samuel Prieto, Antonio Spanu, Lena Strömbäck, Gunhild Rosqvist, Mark Theobald, Marta G. Vivanco. BioDiv-Support: scenario-based decision support tool for policy planning and adaptation to future challenges in biodiversity and ecosystem services. EGU 2021. Oral presentation.

Belusic, Danijel; Fuxing Wang; Petter Lind; Heiner Körnich; David Segersson; Jorge H. Amorim. Benefits of sub-kilometer dynamical downscaling for urban areas. Latsis symposium 2019. Oral presentation.

Lind, Petter; David Lindstedt; Danijel Belusic; Fuxing Wang; Erik Kjellström; Andreas Dobler; Oskar Landgren; Erika Toivonen; Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen; Rasmus A. Pedersen; Ruth Mottram; Dominic Matte. 20-year simulations over the Nordic region with a convection-permitting climate model – benefits and added value of kilometer-scale resolution.  Latsis symposium 2019. Oral presentation.

Lind, P., D. Belusic, E. Toivonen, R. A. Pedersen, D. Lindstedt, F. Wang, A. Dobler, E. Kjellström: Future response of precipitation extremes over the Nordic region in a convection-permitting regional climate model. REKLIM 2019. Oral presentation.

Lind, Petter, David Lindstedt, Danijel Belušić, Fuxing Wang, Erik Kjellström, Andreas Dobler, Oskar Landgren, Erika Toivonen, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Rasmus Anker Pedersen, Ruth Mottram, and Dominic Matte. 20-year simulations over the Nordic region with a convection-permitting climate model – benefits and added value of kilometer-scale resolution. EMS 2019. Oral presentation.

Lindstedt, David; Petter Lind; Danijel Belusic; Fuxing Wang; Erik Kjellström; Andreas Dobler; Oskar Landgren; Erika Toivonen; Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen; Rasmus Anker Pedersen; Ruth Mottram; Dominic Matte. Validation of the snow climate in a regional climate model at 3 km grid spacing over Scandinavia. Latsis symposium 2019, poster presentation.