Solar radiation forecasts for control and monitoring of the electrical grid

The aim of this project is to support the expansion of solar PV in Sweden by contributing to a system-friendly deployment in a future grid with 100 % renewable power that is both flexible and robust.

The goal is twofold: first to develop solar radiation forecasts to gain knowledge about the Nordic PV production in space and time, second to study how such forecasts can be used to maintain a reliable electric power infrastructure by means of needs-based control, diagnostics and evaluation of the PV production. The forecasts will be available for any panel orientation over the Scandinavian area with a horizontal resolution of 2.5 km and a forecast horizon of 48 hours.  The goal is that the forecast quality should be high enough to enable responsible actors to regulate power in a future electricity grid with a much higher share of PV power than today's.

Funding, partners and project period

The project will be carried out during 2017-2018 and is lead by SMHI. The work is funded by the Swedish Energy Agency and is carried out in collaboration  AB, Mälardalens högskola and SMHI. 

Contact person at SMHI is Tomas Landelius.