Phone: +46 11 495 8453
Research and development aimed at improving and refining the methodology on which ensemble forecasting is based. The work includes
- Development of methodologies to construct equally probable ensemble members. This work is closely related to the research area data assimilation.
- Development of methodologies aimed at more accurately estimating and specifying the desirable spread of an ensemble prediction system at the initial time.
- Development of verifications which more accurately and realistically measures the quality of an ensemble prediction system.
- Development of verification methodologies which produces similar results regardless of whether the verification is done against observations or analysis.
The work is done within the international HIRLAM-ALADIN cooperation for Limited Area Weather Forecasting.
Follows the development – research and practical applications – in seasonal forecasting, especially regarding the predictability of the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) och ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation).
Research interests and special competence
- Dynamic meteorology and its practical application in short and medium-range Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
- Predictability, non-linear dynamical systems and chaos theory
- Low-frequency phenomena such as NAO and ENSO and its importance and relevance for longer range forecasting (sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting)
- Empirical and statistical methods in meteorology and climatology