BioDiv-Support: Scenario-based decision support for policy planning and adaptation to future changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Biodiversity includes variation between species, within species and habitats on earth, meaning a rich variation in ecosystems, species and genetic variation within specific species. Among the greatest threats to biodiversity is climate change, destruction of habitats and other human activities.

High-altitude mountain regions are one of our most pristine environments, often with historically small impacts from air pollution, but at risk of being disproportionately impacted by climate change.

We focus on three mountainous regions:

  • The Scandinavian mountains,
  • The Guadarrama Mountains, and
  • The Pyrenees.

Here, we will study the impact of drivers of change such as future climate change, increased incidences of wild fires, emissions from new shipping routes in the Arctic as ice sheets are melting, human impacts on land use and management practices (such as reindeer grazing) and air pollution.

Main objective(s) of the project

The aim of this project is to develop future scenarios for decision-makers and end users of ecosystem services to enable enlightened decisions for adaptation and policy on local and regional scales. The scenarios will represent possible developments until the 2050s.

Main activities to be implemented:

  • Simulate the changes in climate, nitrogen deposition and exposure to ozone in mountain ecosystems as a consequence of greenhouse gas and air pollution emission scenarios.
  • Modell the effect of the mountain ecosystems in the Scandinavian, French and Spanish study areas in response to the developed climate and air pollution (AP) scenarios.
  • Develop a web-based planning tool where local stakeholders in each region can explore the project results to understand how scenarios of climate change, air pollution and policy development will affect the ecosystems.

Local stakeholders will be involved through workshops. On the Global and European scales we will participate in meetings by networks bridging between the scientific and the policy communities, e.g. AMAP, UNECE, CLRTAP HTAP.

Project participants

The project is coordinated by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SMHI, Sweden. 

Project participants from: 

  • Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden
  • CIEMAT, Madrid, Spain
  • FMI, Helsinki, Finland
  • INERIS, Verneuil el Halatte, France
  • Lund University, Lund, Sweden
  • Senckenberggesellschaft für Naturforschung, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
  • Stockholm University, Sweden
  • University of Gothenburg, Sweden

Project period

The project will be active 2019-2022.