Climate indicators - temperature

The temperature variation in Sweden since 1860 is similar to the global change and in line with the consequences of an increase in the greenhouse effect.

The following figure shows the annual average temperature (°C) based on 35 stations spread over the whole country.

Mean Yearly temperature based on 35 Swedish stations
Mean Yearly temperature based on 35 Swedish stations 1860-2014. Red bars show temperatures above average and blue bars show temperatures below average, based on the period 1961-1990. The black curve shows a 10-year moving average.
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Sweden only covers a small portion of the earth’s surface, and the figure shows regional variations in comparison with the global values. For example the warm period during the 1930s and 1940s, including the cold war years, can be clearly seen in the Swedish data but are not nearly as obvious in the global data. The cold year in 2010 is another example of a regional variation since this year was globally one of the warmest.

Similar variations in the global average temperature

In general there are many similarities between the variations in the global and the Swedish temperature, for example the end of the 1800s was colder than the 1900s. Since 1988, all years except 1996 and 2010 have been warmer or much warmer than the average for 1961-1990, which is the normal period currently being used. This is in line with the consequences of an increased greenhouse effect.

Homogenised data

The annual temperatures in the diagram for Sweden are based on homogenised date since 1860.

Homogenised data means that as well as correcting inaccuracies and interpolating missing data, consideration is also given to differences that can occur due to changing instrument (measurement method) or moving the measurement site. The temperature climate can vary by several tenths of a degree over a distance of just a few kilometres. After homogenisation the entire data period should behave as if it was measured at the same location with the same instruments and methods.

Winter

Mean Winter temperature based on 35 Swedish stations 1860/61-2013/14.
Mean Winter temperature based on 35 Swedish stations 1860/61-2013/14. Red bars show temperatures above average and blue bars show temperatures below average, based on the period 1961-1990. The black curve shows a 10-year moving average.
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The average temperature for Winter (December, January and February) together with deviations from the average value for the period 1961-1990.

Spring

Mean Spring temperature based on 35 Swedish stations 1860-2014.
Mean Spring temperature based on 35 Swedish stations 1860-2014. Red bars show temperatures above average and blue bars show temperatures below average, based on the period 1961-1990. The black curve shows a 10-year moving average.
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The average temperature for Spring (March, April and May) together with deviations from the average value for the period 1961-1990.

Summer

Mean Summer temperature based on 35 Swedish stations 1860-2014.
Mean Summer temperature based on 35 Swedish stations 1860-2014. Red bars show temperatures above average and blue bars show temperatures below average, based on the period 1961-1990. The black curve shows a 10-year moving average.
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The average temperature for Summer (June, July and August) together with deviations from the average value for the period 1961-1990.

Autumn

Mean Autumn temperature based on 35 Swedish stations 1860-2014.
Mean Autumn temperature based on 35 Swedish stations 1860-2014. Red bars show temperatures above average and blue bars show temperatures below average, based on the period 1961-1990. The black curve shows a 10-year moving average.
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The average temperature for Autumn (September, October and November) together with deviations from the average value for the period 1961-1990.

Temperature in the future

The average temperature in Sweden is expected to continue to rise. By the end of the century the annual average temperature is predicted to be 2-6 °C higher than for the period 1961-1990, depending on which scenario is used.

The temperature is expected to increase during all seasons, with the biggest increase in northern Sweden during winter. Winter is also the season with the greatest variations from year to year. This means that individual winters in the future can be significantly warmer or colder than the average climate.

[More about temperature in the future.]