RIVIERADE – marine forecasts for the next ten years and beyond
The ocean is affected by climate change in many ways, but predicting trends from ten years to several decades ahead presents a major scientific challenge. A challenge that researchers within the international RIVIERADE project are now tackling.
The project aims to develop a standardised methodology for regional ocean modelling. By utilising multiple ocean models, the aim is to deliver advanced climate forecasts spanning from ten years to several decades into the future. The forecasts will show how the marine environment is affected – from the coast to the open sea – and provide support to decision-makers and urban planners.
The work is being carried out in close dialogue with users, who, throughout the project, provide input on what they need to make their work towards a sustainable ocean easier.
The focus is on the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. For these areas, data is being compiled on the state of the seas, climate risks in coastal areas and the conditions for a sustainable blue economy. The data should also be usable to improve various climate services, including SMHI’s own.
The ten-year forecasts are a cross between a forecast for the next few days and the longer-term climate models that can calculate scenarios for hundreds of years into the future. Ten-year forecasts have never before been produced for the Baltic Sea – nor, indeed, for almost any other marine area in the world.
The role of SMHI
SMHI is involved in all work packages. The focus is on ten-year forecasts and downscaling of physical and biogeochemical processes. SMHI’s own regional model, the Coastal Zone Model, plays a major role in the project, as it is one of three ocean models in the project that is not at the ocean basin scale.
RIVIERADE – improving modelling methods to produce climate services for resilient European seas and coasts in a decadal to multi-decadal timeframe.
Partners
- Istituto Nazionale Di Oceanografia E Di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Italy
- Centre National De La Recherche Scientifique Cnrs (CNRS), France
- Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneosui Cambiamenti Climatici (Fondazione CMCC), Italy
- Stichting Ihe Delft Institute For Water Education (Ihe Delft), Netherlands
- Leibniz-Institut Fur Ostseeforschung Warnemunde, Germany
- Sveriges Meteorologiska Och Hydrologiska Institut (SMHI), Sweden
- Agenzia Nazionale Per Le Nuove Tecnologie, L'energia E Lo Sviluppo Economico Sostenibile (ENEA), Italy
- Universite De Liege (Uliege), Belgium
- Middle East Technical University (Metu), Turkey
Project period
January 2026 – December 2029
Funding
HORIZON Research and Innovation Actions Granting authority
