Formas Fosfor

Impact of accelerated future global mean sea level rise on the phosphorus cycle in the Baltic Sea.

Specific Aims:

  • To evaluate and improve the phosphorus cycling/processes between sediment and water column in a state-of-the-art three-dimensional (3D) ecosystem model for the Baltic Sea. Focus will be on the importance of oxygen dependent dynamics of iron(III) bound phosphorus and salinity dependence of the phosphorus release from the sediment. Regional differences will be investigated.
  • To calculate new scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea with significantly larger global mean sea level rise than in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, see and previous regionalizations assumed. Recent studies of land ice melting rates suggest that future sea level rise may be higher than the values reported in AR4.
  • To investigate changing internal loads of phosphorus due to future changes in salinity. We will quantify the impacts on the ecosystem, bottom water oxygen concentrations as well as on the occurrence of future cyanobacteria blooms and their uncertainties.