ACT4Drought – Actionable Climate Tools for Drought Preparedness in Sweden
ACT4Drought will develop an actionable drought and water-scarcity early warning service for Sweden, using sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting, impact-based prediction, and advanced AI techniques to support proactive decision-making. The project will improve the accuracy of drought hazard forecasts, identify how drought indicators are linked to potential impacts, and develop predictive capabilities for water scarcity.
Drought has posed a high risk to society and ecosystems in Sweden, posing major challenges for water supply and emergency response. Drought frequency, duration and severity and its impacts are expected to intensify due to changes in climate variability and hence timely and accurate predictions are needed to better guide decision-making. Although Sweden has long been considered water-rich, the 2018 and ongoing 2025 droughts exposed significant vulnerabilities, underscoring the need for improved preparedness.
Project goals:
ACT4Drought aims to strengthen Sweden’s national drought preparedness by co-developing an actionable service for drought and water scarcity at the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale, applying impact-based forecasting and advanced artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. Building on the national early warning system (EWS), ACT4Drought has three goals:
(1) improve the accuracy of S2S drought hazard forecasts,
(2) identify links between hazard indicators and its impact indicators,
and (3) develop predictive capabilities for water scarcity.
The EWS will be co-created with SMHI’s Operational Service and Sydvatten, focusing on securing public water supply under drought conditions. MSB and Jordbruksverket join as reference groups, ensuring the outputs are relevant with decision-making needs regarding forest fire and crop yield. ACT4Drought supports a shift from reactive to proactive drought and water scarcity management, enabling timely action and preparedness across Sweden.
About the project
Role of SMHI
The project is led by Yiheng Du at SMHI’s Hydrology Research Unit.
ACT4Drought also brings together experts from Karlstad University, Sydvatten, with MSB and Jordbruksverket serving as key stakeholders.
Funding and project period
Swedish research council Formas