Better methods for providing information about extreme weather events
SMHI is participating in the ASPECT research project with partners from across Europe to provide climate information for climate adaptation, among other things. To ensure that the information is useful, it is co-produced in close collaboration with stakeholders from sectors that are important to society, such as agriculture, civil society, the financial sector, and the public sector.
Since 2023, researchers working within ASPECT have been developing climate information that spans relevant time and spatial scales and is adapted to multiple decision-making levels within Europe. The research project consists of several working groups that, among other things, perform calculations using climate models and work to improve them, conduct case studies, organize forums for users, and develop systems for delivering climate information.
– Through the project, SMHI is developing methods for producing climate information on precipitation and extreme weather events. This also includes gathering knowledge about how information on these events changes in a warmer climate. Two years into the project, we are well on our way to better methods, says Ralf Döscher, climate researcher and group leader at SMHI.
Ralf Döscher, climate researcher at SMHI.
Information about local extreme weather events
SMHI's work within the project focuses primarily on developing and testing downscaling methods for extreme weather events in different climates that will benefit SMHI, other research projects, and society. More specifically, SMHI researchers are currently working on:
- New methods that use machine learning to improve seasonal precipitation forecasts, which, according to preliminary results, increases accuracy.
- Analyzing and understanding how variations in sea temperature in the North Atlantic affect the climate in Europe.
- Developing a system for information on very local extreme weather events on a kilometer scale in different climates across Emilia-Romagna, Italy. This system will also be applied to other areas in Sweden and around the world.
- Analyzing user needs within European organizations; of particular interest is what type of climate information for climate adaptation is most relevant right now.
- Broadening access to useful climate information.
The next step for SMHI researchers is to complete the development of the new methods so that they can be turned into services for society. The project will continue until December 2026.
