Forecasts and observations of water inflows to reservoirs are key parts of hydropower planning, as they determine the amount of water available for production. SMHI provides information of potential power production to enable in-depth knowledge of water availability for hydropower and energy-market sectors.
SMHI has a long-lasting experience of close collaboration with hydropower producers and energy traders in Sweden and in the Nordic area, the region with the largest hydropower production in Europe.
Modelling total inflow to reservoirs
Daily short time production planning, optimization, price forecasting and long-term planning of investments are some examples where inflow data is needed. In the past years, our expert hydrologists have carried out studies and projects focused on modelling water inflow to reservoirs to evaluate potential hydro production. We use SMHI’s hydrological model HYPE, which extends over the whole Europe.
Energy traders and large hydropower producers make price forecasts for the next months, years and decades based on statistics and historical time series of river inflow expressed in energy terms. SMHI provides model simulations and forecasts of river inflows expressed in the most relevant unit, gigawatt hours (GWh). We work closely with our partner Montel and Energy Quantified to provide GWh forecasts via their online platform. Models of hydro production have been already set up in Sweden, Norway, Finland, Italy, France, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Spain, Portugal, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Greece. Our work is in continuous development to cover all European Countries.
We provide a hydrological package comprising inflow, effective precipitation, snowpack, soil water, temperature and hydrological balance resulting from our hydrological model EHYPE. 15-day ahead forecasts are generated and updated on a daily basis.