The atlas will show local effects that arise when the climate changes and the global average temperature increases by 1.5°, 2° or 4°C. It is based on analyses of climate indicators that are important for e.g. agriculture, health, water, energy and natural disasters. The indicators present information from global and regional climate models regarding the anticipated future climate.
“The initial area of focus that we will be working on during 2017 is agriculture. We anticipate that the entire climate impact atlas will take four years to complete,” says Grigory Nikulin, researcher at SMHI.
SMHI providing expert support
The analyses will be performed in Africa by local researchers. The project is being led from the University of Cape Town in South Africa.
“We have been working together for several years to build up local expertise in the field of climate modelling. They are now taking over the primary responsibility and we will be providing expert support. This is a major and important step in the work of distributing knowledge and expertise,” Grigory Nikulin points out.
Clear decision support
While the climate impact atlas is an important tool for climate adaptation, it is also a clear example of how decision support can be generated based on regional climate modelling. Within the CORDEX network for regional climate modelling, the idea of creating similar climate impact atlases for other parts of the world is considered.
The Swedish Government is contributing SEK 1.5 million to the project during 2017.