Contributors: SMHI Hydrology Research (FoUh), Lund University, Luleå University of Technology
In this WP, the products generated and methods developed in WP2 will be used in hydrological modelling and forecasting. Detailed scenarios of future dynamics and status will be produced for Swedish and European water resources. Sector specific analysis will be made along with uncertainty estimates.
- High-resolution modelling will be based on the HYPE concept including the multi-basin models of Europe and Sweden, forced with (raw and processed) climate model data from WPs 1 and 2. The models will also be used to simulate long-term water balance as well as high flows and droughts but also other environmental changes (e.g. land use or remedial programmes) for comparison.
- For energy forecasts, canonical correlation analysis will be applied to statistically estimate/forecast spring floods and compare with the operational forecast model (HBV).
- The urban hydrology simulations of runoff and pollutant mass-fluxes are to be performed with Mike Urban/Mouse, GIS and SEWSYS in urban areas where model set-ups are available.
- Detailed models of unsaturated and saturated solute transport at field- and pore scale in combination with laboratory and field experiments will be used to assess the sensitivity of sediment and pollutant transport to both data resolution and climate change effects.
Tasks and deliverables:
3.1 Large-scale modelling and effect analysis
a) High-resolution pan-European assessment (FoUh)
b) High resolution Swedish assessment (FoUh)
c) Statistical spring flood forecasting (LU)
3.2. Small scale modelling and effect analysis
a) Urban hydrology (LUT)
b) Field-scale hydrology and transport of sediments and pollutants (LU)