EUCP: European Climate Prediction system

The overarching objective of the European Climate Prediction (EUCP) system is to develop an innovative European regional ensemble climate prediction system based on a new generation of improved and typically higher-resolution climate models, covering timescales from seasons to decades initialized with observations, and designed to support practical and strategic climate adaptation and mitigation decision-taking on local, national and global scales. The European Climate Prediction system project (EUCP) has four specific objectives.

1. Develop an innovative ensemble climate prediction system based on high-resolution climate models for Europe for the near-term (~1-40years), including improved methods used to characterise uncertainty in climate predictions, regional downscaling, and evaluation against observations.
2. Use the climate prediction system to produce consistent, authoritative and actionable climate information. This information will be co-designed with users to constitute a robust foundation for Europe-wide climate service activities to support climate-related risk assessments and climate change adaptation programmes.
3. Demonstrate the value of this climate prediction system through high impact extreme weather events in the near past and near future drawing on convection permitting regional climate models translated into risk information for, and with, targeted end users.
4. Develop, and publish, methodologies, good practice and guidance for producing and using authoritative climate predictions for 1-40year timescale.

Role of SMHI

SMHI is co-leading work package 3 “Demonstrator of high impact weather in a changing climate” that involves simulations with convective-permitting regional climate models operated on the km-scale. SMHI is also involved in work packages on “Development of an interannual-to-decadal climate forecast system”, “Producing uncertainty quantifications/PDFs and realizations of future climate on time-scales beyond 10 years”, “Towards a seamless near-term European climate prediction system” and “Documentation, data exchange and integrating science with users”.

Project partners

The project is coordinated by the UK Met Office and has altogether 16 beneficiaries from 10 European countries. For a list of the partners see www.eucp-project.eu/the-project/partners/

Funding

EUCP is funded by the European Union under Horizon 2020. Grant Agreement 776613.

Timeline

EUCP will run from 2018 to 2021.

Contact person at SMHI

Erik Kjellström