ADSIMNOR: Societal value of Arctic climate modelling

Climate modelling has progressed significantly during recent years, nevertheless many open issues remain, particularly in the Arctic. Addressing these outstanding issues will lead to better and more detailed probability statements of future climate change, especially for regional areas with specific needs for adaptation research.

The Swedish society is an integral part of the Arctic, in terms of local human living conditions, economic aspects and scientific understanding.

Further development of Arctic climate modelling is targeted towards a distinctly improved impact on stakeholder interaction and support. Therefore, studies of the future fate of the land-surface are an important part of the value chain originating from global modeling.

This project combines improved probability information on a future Arctic with stakeholder perspectives. As a precondition we need to further develop simulation capability of the physical Arctic system. Economical, governance, geo-political and societal effects in the Arctic can only be assessed if the physical climate system is well understood. We consider this is the way to generate increasingly reliable guidelines on trends, variability, statistics and probabilities of change, whereby the specifications of the change statements are developed in a dialogue with stakeholders.