The Arctic exhibits a large, local amplification of the global warming signal associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This amplification manifests itself by a rapid reduction in sea-ice cover, increased Greenland ice sheet melt and changing Arctic vegetation. Such large changes can have global repercussions through changes in sea-level, albedo and circulation. Arctic changes even have the potential for accelerating land-atmosphere CO2 release and potentially rapid methane release.
For the Arctic land surface and ecology, changes in the Arctic ocean and atmosphere can have consequences through impacts on permafrost stability, hydrology and through sea ice retreat a potential influence on atmospheric weather variability. Coupled interactions are expected between vegetation changes, surface albedo and water vapor budgets.
For the Arctic land surface and ecology, changes in the Arctic ocean and atmosphere can have consequences through impacts on permafrost stability, hydrology and through sea ice retreat a potential influence on atmospheric weather variability. Coupled interactions are expected between vegetation changes, surface albedo and water vapor budgets.
The Arctic as a home for people is dramatically impacted by changing conditions for land-use, local hunting and fishing practices, as well as tourism. Permafrost melting with associated problems for human infrastructure and a more accessible ocean are clear examples of potential economic impacts.
Development of suitable adaptation and mitigation strategies for a changing climate are based on scenario simulations with coupled climate models. However, many of the aforementioned processes are poorly understood and therefore poorly simulated in these models. Improved understanding of the physical climate system and its impact on the land surface is needed such that reliable guidelines on trends, variability, statistics and probabilities of change are possible.
ADSIMNOR: Background
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The Arctic is an important component in the Global Climate System with influences that range from conditioning deep water formation, thereby being essential for the thermohaline circulation of the ocean to determining the large scale baroclinic structure of the atmosphere and thus cyclone activity. The Arctic climate system is influenced by external atmospheric and oceanic processes that can result in variable advection of heat, water and salinity into the Arctic.