A comprehensive decision support system aimed at researching the consequences of measures and emission scenarios within different sectors of society, such as energy production and road traffic, is currently lacking in Sweden. It is from this background that SMHI is currently developing a Scenario tool, with the idea of filling the knowledge gaps within the area.
Within a period of two years, the project will result in the tool, being used for the evaluation of air pollution, population exposure, health effects and external health costs.
The objective is for the aspects, which refer to efforts pertaining to environment and health effects, to be studied with the new Scenario tool. The decision-makers can then research the measures to be taken in each scenario and these can be tested through model simulation so that the effects of the measures can be assessed from environmental, health and economic perspectives.
Examples of current questions that can be analysed are health and economic benefits that can be achieved through:
- all old wood stoves are replaced with new ones
- changes in energy consumption, for example increased use of bio fuel
- decrease in the use of studded tyres in certain parts of the country by a certain amount
- a change in transport policy, from road transport to rail and sea
- reduction in emissions from certain source by a certain amount
- changed metrological conditions
- changes in physical planning
The module will contain functions that highlight and visualise the differences between the various concentration fields.
The methods of calculation can be clearly described in the following manner. The question to be analysed is first defined. The concentration field is presented in part to create a Base case and partially for a Scenario case. The Base case can correspond to the current situation or, for example, a scenario for a certain year where an emission development has been assumed to have occurred without any change of policy ("business as usual"). The Scenario case corresponds to the calculated concentration for the political or technical changes that are to be studied.
For each case, calculations are made with a dispersion model where emission data is customised to the question. In the Scenario tool the differences are calculated between the Base case and the Scenario case and a new concentration is created thereby describing the changes in the Air Quality. Thereafter, the changes in exposure are calculated based on detailed population data for the entire country and the health effects of this change as well as the economic value of the changed health effects.
Project in cooperation
The project is a cooperation between SMHI, Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, Swedish Road Administration, Swedish Energy Agency, Umeå University and Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.