Unique research project develops ten-year forecasts for the Baltic Sea, the Mediterranean and the Black Sea

The sea is affected by climate change in many ways, but predicting developments from ten years to several decades ahead is a major scientific challenge. At the same time, there is a growing need for reliable information to inform decision-making, particularly at a regional level, for both coastal areas and the open sea.

Focus on the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea

As part of a new European collaboration, SMHI’s oceanographers and other researchers will therefore develop a standardised methodology for ocean modelling at regional level. By utilising multiple ocean models, the aim is to deliver advanced climate forecasts spanning from ten years to several decades into the future. The forecasts will show how the marine environment is affected – from the coast to the open sea – and provide support to decision-makers and urban planners. The work is being carried out in close dialogue with users, who will provide input throughout the project on what they need to make their work towards a sustainable ocean easier.

The focus is on the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. For these areas, data on the state of the seas, climate risks in coastal areas and the conditions for a sustainable blue economy will be produced.

The first time ten-year forecasts have been produced for the Baltic Sea

Ten-year forecasts are a cross between a forecast for the next few days and climate models that can calculate scenarios for hundreds of years into the future.

“Ten-year forecasts have never before been produced for the Baltic Sea – nor indeed for any other sea area in the world – so this is unique,” says Magnus Hieronymus, research leader at SMHI’s Oceanographic Research Unit.

The role of initial conditions ten years into the future

In a weather forecast, initial conditions play a major role in determining what the weather is expected to be like a few days ahead. The initial conditions refer to the starting conditions fed into a model, such as data on temperature, air pressure, wind speed and wind direction, and so on. However, today’s weather data says nothing about what the climate will be like in a hundred years’ time, as this is influenced, among other things, by future levels of greenhouse gas emissions.

In the project, known as Rivierade, the researchers aim to determine whether it is possible to make predictions about the state of the ocean in the longer term based on the current initial conditions.

“Given that we know what the ocean looks like today, we will try to find a way to predict what it might look like in ten years’ time,” says Magnus Hieronymus.

SMHI’s role in the project

SMHI is involved in all work packages. The focus is on ten-year forecasts and downscaling of physical and biogeochemical processes. SMHI’s own regional model, the ‘Coastal Zone Model’, plays a major role, as it is one of three ocean models within the project that is not on a sea-basin scale but focuses specifically on the coastal zone.

Healthy seas and thriving coastal communities

“With climate data that is easier to use, we increase the opportunities to protect the sea whilst developing sustainable use of marine resources. It also creates better conditions for coastal communities to thrive. It’s about giving decision-makers, authorities and the business sector the opportunity to assess climate risks and plan for the long term”, says Magnus.