Nordic report highlights risks linked to AMOC tipping

AMOC is a large-scale ocean circulation system that transports heat northward in the Atlantic and plays a key role in shaping the relatively mild climate of Northern Europe. According to the last IPCC report continued global warming will “very likely” lead to a slowdown of the AMOC but “with medium confidence” not lead to an abrupt, complete collapse before 2100.

Recent research since that report, however, suggests that the risk for exceeding a tipping point of the AMOC before 2100 and an almost complete collapse of the AMOC in the 22nd century is a serious possibility.

To explore ways for such an assessment and initiate a discussion between climate scientists, social scientists and stakeholders, the Nordic Council of Minister’s sponsored the ‘Nordic Tipping Week’ workshop under the theme ‘resilience’ during the Finnish Presidency of the Council in October 2025.

Workshop led to report

A major result from the workshop is the report “A Nordic Perspective on AMOC Tipping” which synthesises the current scientific understanding of the impacts of a potential AMOC rapid weakening or collapse.

In the report some impacts are assessed as robust, including a general cooling of the North Atlantic region and surroundings, sea level rise in Northern Europe and changes in tropical precipitation patterns. If the AMOC collapsed, the main and dominant signal will be a cooling compared to the warming level when the collapse happened. Other effects, such as the amplitude of both winter and summer cooling, are more uncertain.

– Although the future of the AMOC is uncertain, the potential for a rapid weakening or collapse is a risk we need to take seriously, especially in the Nordic region where the consequences could have large impacts on society, says René Navarro-Labastida, climate researcher at SMHI and one of the authors behind the report.

The report also identifies important knowledge gaps, particularly regarding sector-specific impacts. These include limited understanding of potential consequences for food production, energy systems, and other climate-sensitive sectors in the Nordic countries.

Key messages from the report:

• It is vital to push for vigorous mitigation that achieves decarbonization and net negative emission targets.
• Long-term funding should be secured to sustain and operationalize key observational networks, and build an AMOC early warning system that couples Earth observations with model simulations.
• The future of the AMOC is uncertain, but an AMOC collapse could trigger extreme impacts in the Nordic countries that differ from, and in part oppose, those expected from global climate change.