SMHI supports the development of a hydrological forecasting and warning service in Estonia
SMHI has started a new collaboration with the Estonian Environment Agency (ESTEA) to support the development of a national, operational hydrological forecasting and warning service in Estonia.
ESTEA currently uses hydrological models in a limited number of catchment areas. To enable forecasts and warnings nationwide, the agency has identified the need for a national forecasting model. Within the project, SMHI contributes its expertise on the HYPE model, a hydrological model developed by SMHI and used operationally for hydrological forecasting and warning services in Sweden as well as in several other countries.
"As climate change is causing more frequent and severe extreme weather events, the need for reliable forecasts and early warnings is increasing. This strengthens society’s preparedness for events such as droughts and floods. Through its expertise, SMHI can contribute to this work, in this case by supporting one of our neighbouring countries", says Richard Alpfjord Wylde, project manager.
Successful kickoff meeting in Tallinn in January 2026 with participants from ESTEA, Kisters AG, and SMHI.
Model development
The project includes both model development and operational support. SMHI will develop an initial version of an Estonian HYPE model, adapted so that forecasts can be generated for all hydrometric stations across the country. In parallel, ESTEA’s hydrologists are being trained to ensure that the model can be used, further developed, and maintained operationally after the project ends.
“The goal is not only to deliver a model, but to support ESTEA in establishing a functional forecasting chain that can be used in daily operations and for warnings,” says project manager Richard Alpfjord Wylde.
From Model to Operations
An important part of the work is also deployment in an operational environment. SMHI is supporting project partner Kisters AG with the integration of the HYPE model into their operational forecasting system. Kisters AG is a German company that develops software solutions for water and environmental management.
After model setup and calibration, the project will focus on building forecasting and warning routines, with SMHI sharing experiences from Sweden, via a joint workshop focused on operational routines, warning criteria, and analysis methods.
The project started in November 2025 and runs until October 2027.