IMPROVED HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTS BASED ON ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS

For the past few years we have been investigating the possibilities of making ensemble streamflow forecasts based on the ensemble weather predictions from ECMWF. Last summer the hydrological forecasting division at the SMHI launched an operational streamflow forecasting system, which issues daily, automatic forecasts for some 60 basins all over Sweden. At present these forecasts are being evaluated. So, far, the results are promising, and a more thorough evaluation in a probabilistic sense will be carried out. Based on the results of the evaluation further development of the system is planned, with studies of the uncertainty stemming from the hydrological system compared to the uncertainty in the weather forecasts.

Additionally, methods for improved updating of the hydrological model prior to the forecasts are being studied.

Duration: 2005-2007

Funded by: SMHI, SRV (Swedish Rescue Services Agency)

Responsible at SMHI: Göran Lindström, Jonas Olsson