PAMO (Participatory Modelling for Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Southern Africa)

TextThe aim of the PAMO-project is to design a participatory modelling process at the local scale (100-500 km²) in order to study the possible impact of climate change on trends in water availability and flow regimes, including potential changes in the occurrence of extreme events in a semi-arid climate. The project will be conducted in cooperation with the University of Natal. Within the project one or two sub-catchments will be located within the Thukela River Basin, South Africa (29 000 km²). Its headwaters arise in the Drakensberg mountains, from which the water flows eastwards to finally reach the Indian ocean 90 km north of Durban. 

Three detailed future climate scenarios for southern Africa will be used, based on boundary conditions from 1-2 global climate models and 1-2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios, with a spatial resolution of approximately 50x50 km, and a temporal sample ranging from the first half of the 21st century until 2050. These scenarios tested with the help of a hydrological model to determine future effects on water resources. Regional water managers and stakeholders and decision-makers will be involved throughout the modelling process. The project will assess the impact of participatory modelling on stakeholders' perceptions of the problem of climate change related to water resources, and on stakeholders' perception of needs of adaptation strategies and measures to accommodate possible climate related changes and reduce vulnerability. It is hypothesised that ensuring a genuine participation of relevant stakeholders through all stages of the modelling process will increase the legitimacy of the produced information. This legitimisation will increase the possibility to assess what options and response measures that exists to ensure that people in a catchment can adapt and cope with expected impact of climate change on water resources. 

The study will be twinned to the ongoing FORMAS financed study "Participatory Catchment Modelling for Sustainable Water Management" (DEMO), which investigates the theory as well as the practice of a planning participatory process facilitated by catchment model, focused on mitigation strategies to reduce transports of nutrients in the Vindån catchment, Sweden.

Duration: 2006-2008

Funded by: SIDA/SAREC

Responsible at SMHI: Lotta Andersson, Julie Wilk 

External partners: LUCSUS Lund University, Tema V, Linköping University

Collaborating partner: The School of Bio-resources Engineering and Environmental Hydrology, University of Natal, South Africa