Improved forecasts to identify the risk of icing on wind turbines

Local weather forecasts for areas with wind turbines provide knowledge of when wind turbines risk being subjected to icing. Forecasts will now be developed to improve decision-making data.

Icing is a well known problem at wind farms in cold climates. SMHI has mapped how conditions for icing appear. Researchers are working on developing forecasts that indicate a risk of icing on wind turbines.

Development improves decision-making data

An ensemble forecast consists of numerous parallel forecast calculations. Forecast uncertainty can be better assessed through improvements to models and the development of ensemble forecasts.
 
“We will now improve models and develop ensemble forecasts for the next two days, as a method to calculate uncertainties in forecasts. We will also further analyse the calculation of production losses due to icing,” says Esbjörn Olsson, researcher at SMHI.

Avoid production losses

Choosing the right placement, also from an icing standpoint, means you can avoid production losses as early as the planning stage of new wind farms.

“With better tools for modelling of icing, we can provide better decision-making data even when designing wind farms in areas where the risk of icing occurs,” says Esbjörn Olsson.

The project is financed by the Swedish Energy Agency and led by Uppsala University. SMHI participates together with Weathertech Scandinavia AB and Vattenfall Vindkraft AB.