Health project for eastern Africa

The Healthy Futures project will concentrate on infectious diseases as a result of climate change, in eastern Africa. SMHI will perform climate simulations and communicate the data to disease experts.

Concentrating on eastern Africa as a study area, Healthy Futures comprises a comprehensive, inter-disciplinary consortium of health, environment, socio-economic, disease modelling and climate experts in addition to governmental health departments.

Much concern has focused on the future distribution and spread of infectious diseases, and in particular the negative health impacts of changes in transmission and outbreaks of vector-borne diseases as a result of climate change.

The Healthy Futures project aims to construct a disease risk mapping system for three water-related diseases, malaria, Rift Valley fever and schistosomiasis, taking into account environmental/climatic trends and changes in socio-economic conditions to predict future risk.

Regional and global climate scenarios

In Healthy Futures SMHI will perform regional climate simulations for the entire African continent and focused on the study region. These runs will be made both retrospectively over the past 50 years and forwards in time from present-day to ~2100. The future scenarios will use a range of global climate scenarios.

SMHI will play an active role in communicating climate scenarios data to disease experts and be involved in investigating disease-climate relationships for the present and how these relationships are projected to evolve under the pressure of various environmental changes in the future.