WP1 Regional climate modelling

This work package is directed towards dynamical downscaling of GCM data and the provision of detailed regional climate simulations in support of the hydrological assessment activities described in this project.

Results and deliverables

1. RCA4 simulations over Europe

The latest version of the Rossby Centre Regional Climate model - RCA4 is used to produce high-resolution regional climate simulations over Europe covering the Euro-CORDEX domain defined in the Coordinate Regional Downscaling Experiment - CORDEX.

The Era-Interim reanalysis (1980-2010) and 9 coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) have been downscaled over the Euro-CORDEX domain at 0.44 resolution. All AOGCM simulations have run in a transient mode for the 1951-2005 historical period following be two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios – RCP45 and 85 for the 2006-2100 period.

One simulation driven by the EC-EARTH model has also been downscaled for a stabilization scenario - RCP26.

The 0.44 Euro-CORDEX ensemble produced by RCA4 is the largest ever ensemble of regional climate simulations over Europe simulated by one regional climate model driven by different AOGCMs.

A smaller sub-set, 5 AOGCMs of 9, has been chosen for high-resolution downscaling at 0.11 resolution over the same Euro-CORDEX domain. The ERA-Interim (1980-2010) and historical simulations (1970-2005) for all five AOGCMs have already been completed and RCP’s simulations are ongoing now (January 2013).

9 AOGCMs from CMIP5 project downscaled at 0.44 resolution: CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-MR, NorESM1-M, EC-EARTH, MIROC5, GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-LR.

5 AOGCMs from CMIP5 project chosen for downscaling at 0.11 resolution: CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-MR, EC-EARTH, and MPI-ESM-LR.

More about: WMO - Emission scenarios

2. HARMONIE system for ultra-high resolution climate simulations

A new high-resolution non-hydrostatic regional climate model - HARMONIE has been developing at Rossby Center since 2011. The HARMONIE system is based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) model which is specifically developed to allow integrations at convective-resolving resolutions, e.g. ~1-3km per grid box. A couple of 10-year evaluation simulations over Europe have been performed with the first version of the HARMONIE climate model system using two different horizontal resolutions - 15 and 6 km and have shown promising results. Development of the HARMONIE system is continuing at Rossby Centre with first simulations expected in 2013.

Rossby Newsletter: HARMONIE