Work Package 1

Observations & Forecasts

In order to assess the quality of the forecasts, observed precipitation data of identical resolution in time and space is required.

There is currently a project within SMHI to produce an observed precipitation data set on a 2×2 km spatial grid on hourly time resolution by combining radar measurements of precipitation with automatic high-resolution precipitation gauges. In the proposed project, this database will be further expanded to comprise high-resolution precipitation data covering all of Sweden for the time period 2006 until present.

Two versions of the database are foreseen, one real-time operational version to be used in the existing forecasting system and one offline version with corrected observations. The data sets will be thoroughly evaluated with particular focus on extremes and their frequency distribution in time and space.

Primary forecasts from KNEP, GLAMEPS and ECMWF will be downloaded and evaluated in terms of forecast performance for selected areas (to be decided together with the case studies in WP 3), taking into account different lead times and accumulation periods.

The evaluation will focus on relevant metrics with respect to accuracy in time and space, location and extension, plus intensity and variability. It will include both deterministic (for single forecasts and ensemble mean or median) and probabilistic (for entire ensembles) analyses. 

MSB timetable