Baltic Sea basin-wide Hydrological Predictions for the Environment

A first version of the dynamic HYPE model for water and nutrient flow in the Baltic Sea basin (Balt-HYPE) is operational in the SMHI production environment. New model versions will be released regularly and results are available for free downloading of time-series for rivers and coastal zones. The model is validated and improved continuously.

A first version of the dynamic HYPE model for water and nutrient
flow in the Baltic Sea basin (Balt-HYPE) is operational in the
SMHI production environment.

The model set-up is a result of several R&D projects funded by
BONUS, GMES, EU FP7 and Interreg (e.g. Geoland2, MyOcean,
, Ecosupport, and Sea meets land). Balt-HYPE calc-
ulates daily hydrological and nutrient variables in 5128 subbasins
across the Baltic Sea basin.

The model input data is taken from readily available regional and
global , and calibration is made simultaneously for the
whole model domain using a stepwise approach.

Discharge has been calibrated against daily observed values (from
BALTEX and GRDC) in a number of representative gauged basins
upstream and validated at the river outlets.

Nutrients are only calibrated for average seasonal values (from EEA
at a number of river mouth stations due to the limited availability of
nutrient monitoring data across the basin.

The model uncertainty is reflected in model performance (see below).
Nevertheless, an infrastructure is now established and open for data
exchange and international collaboration. The model is continuously
undergoing further validation and improvement.
 

SMHI welcome all initiatives for further system improvements and co-
operation in model input data and code development. We invite
practitioners, water authorities and researchers to join this effort to
construct a collaborative platform in common for transboundary
hydrological assessments at different scales.

New model versions will be released regularly and results are available
for free downloading of time-series for rivers and coastal zones.

So far, the model has been used to assess:

1) source apportionment of nutrient load on the sea, 

2) reconstruction of historic discharge and nutrients at daily time-step
    (1971 to 2008), 

3) analysis of BSAP implementation,

4) climate change impact on water and nutrients for present emissions
    and diffuse sources in the basin,
 
5) combined effect of BSAP implementation and climate change on
    nutrient load.
  

In addition, the model is run in forecast mode with automatic delivery of 2-10 days water and nutrient forecasts to the oceanographic communities of BOOS, NOOS and MyOcean, for direct input to several oceanographic forecast models.

 

Examples of Balt-HYPE model results

Validation of daily river discharge at river outlets

balthype_01_calibration

Comparison of seasonal distribution of observed and simulated discharge (m3/s) to the Baltic Sea.

Calibration/Validation of TN and TP concentrations

BaltHype03_TP_TNvalidation

Changes in Mean annual discharge for 4 different climate scenarios

BaltHype04_climate1

Changes in Mean annual TN concentrations for 4 different climate scenarios (Note that the spurious results in the northerly rivers are caused by poor description of glacial proc

BaltHype05_climate2

Changes in Mean annual TP concentrations for 4 different climate scenarios

BaltHype06_climate3

References

Donnelly, C., Dahné, J., Lindström, G., Rosberg, J., Strömqvist, J., Pers, C., Yang, W. and Arheimer, B. 2009. An evaluation of multi-basin hydrological modelling for predictions in ungauged basins. IAHS publ. 333:112-120.

Donnelly, C., Strömqvist, J. and Arheimer, B. 2011. Modelling Climate Change Effects on Nutrient Discharges from the Baltic Sea Catchment: Processes and Results. Proceedings of symposium H04 held during IUGG2011 in Melbourne, Australia, July 2011) (IAHS Publ. 3XX, 2011).

Donnelly, C., Dahné, J., Strömqvist, J., and Arheimer, B. (2010b) Modelling Tools: From Sweden to Pan-European scales for European WFD requirements. Proceedings of BALWOIS 2010 conference in Ohrid, Macedonia, May 2010, http://www.balwois.com/balwois/info_sys/publication2010.php

Donnelly, C., Dahné. J., Rosberg, J., Strömqvist, J., Yang, W. and Arheimer, B. (2010a) High-resolution, large-scale hydrological modelling tools for Europe. Proc. of the Sixth World FRIEND Conference, Fez, Morocco, October 2010). IAHS Publ. 340, 2010.

Strömqvist, J., Dahné, J., Donnelly, C., Lindström, G., Rosberg, J., Pers, C., Yang, W., and Arheimer, B. 2009. Using recently developed global data sets for hydrological predictions. IAHS publ. 333:121-127.