New climate scenario data available at smhi.se!

A new set of climate scenario data is soon to be published at smhi.se. These new maps show how the climate of Sweden, and Europe, is projected to change in the future.

The annual and seasonal means, from today up to 2100, are presented in a series of maps for Sweden and further the wider European region. For Sweden there is an additional option to examine parts of the country (forecast regions, counties and catchment areas) in more detail. For the selected regions the data is presented as a time series showing the average climate change in the selected region. Parameters such as temperature and precipitation are shown together with a number of climate indices including the number of days with snow cover, dry spells and the start and end of the vegetation period.

The climate scenarios are based on three scenarios: RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5 and as a reference to previous climate scenarios also SRES A1B. The Rossby Centre regional climate model, RCA, is used to simulate the climate in Europe using data from 9 different global climate models for the RCP scenarios and 6 different global climate models for the A1B scenario. By using several models for every scenario (a so called ensemble) we do not only get an estimate of future climate, but also an estimate of the uncertainty of the results. If the models agree, the result is certain, if the models disagree, the result is uncertain.

New SMHI scenario image
Example of how the climate data will be presented. Top left: Ensemble mean of annual temperature (°C) for the period 1971-2000. Top right: Change in ensemble mean of annual temperature (°C) in 2071-2100 compared to 1971-2000. Bottom left: Standard deviation for the models in the ensemble for annual temperature at 2071-2100. Bottom right: Number of models that give increased annual temperature for the period 2071-2100 compared to 1971-2000.