Global warming levels
Svenska
This page shows regional climate change at a global warming level of 1.5 or 2 degrees. There is also information explaining the results and how they have been reached. An introduction to climate scenarios is available (in Swedish) on the page Om klimatscenarier. There is also a guidance (in Swedish) that provides support for interpreting and using climate scenarios.
South America
Southwestern Asia
Africa
Europe
Scandinavia
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Year
Regional climate change in a degrees warmer world
Click in the blue box below to select a geographical area, global warming level, season and climate index.
Area
World
South America
Southwestern Asia
Africa
Europe
Scandinavia
Season
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Year
Change in
Calculated change in
compared to 1971-2000 at the period for
°C global warming according to scenario RCP8.5
(read more).
The map is based on an average of
climate scenarios at a global warming of
°C compared to the period 1881-1910. Below is more information about the climate scenarios used as well as maps for other time periods.
Enlarge image degrees warming
Internationally there is an ambition to limit the increase in global average temperature to below
degrees compared to pre-industrial levels. Since the global temperature increase of
degrees is just an average it is interesting to look at the temperature increase at regional scale, for example in Europe and Scandinavia
(read more).
Global temperature increase compared to 1881-1910 according to nine different climate models according to scenario RCP8.5 (coloured lines) and the average of the model ensemble (black line). The thirty year periods representing 2 degrees warming are shown as horizontal lines of the same colours as the respective models.
Enlarge image
Reliability of the results
The maps below describe the variation between the
climate scenarios that are members of the
ensemble. The maps show the change as an ensemble mean, but also how much the individual climate model runs differ from the mean.
The climate scenarios are produced using the regional climate model
, which has been initialised from
different global climate models.
The ensemble spread for theEnlarge image
Top left:
Ensemble mean (°C) for the control period 1971-2000.
The average of the during the control period 1971-2000 for the climate scenarios in the ensemble.
Top right:
Change in ensemble mean
() compared to 1971-2000 at the period for
°C global warming according to scenario RCP8.5
(read more).
This is the same map as the one at the top of the page.
Bottom left:
Standard deviation (°C) for members of the ensemble
.
The standard deviation is a measure of the spread of the climate scenarios in the ensemble. If the values of all members lie close to the mean, then the standard deviation is low, but if the values are spread far above and below the mean then the standard deviation is high.
Bottom right:
Number of climate scenarios in the ensemble that show an increase
compared to the control period 1971-2000.
If all members of the ensemble show an increase for the future scenario for a grid square, then a certain amount of robustness/certainty can be assumed for the result there. The same applies if all members indicate a decrease. However, if for example show a decrease, this means that the members disagree and the result is uncertain. Development of the results over time
The maps below show how the
can change with time according to the
scenario.
The information is based on an ensemble of
climate scenarios.
The climate scenarios are produced using the regional climate model
, which has been initialised from
different global climate models.
Development over time of the ensemble mean for the for the scenarioEnlarge image
Top left:
Ensemble mean (°C) for the control period 1971-2000.
The average of the during the control period 1971-2000 for the climate scenarios in the ensemble. Note that the colour scale is shown to the left of the map.
Top right:
Change in ensemble mean
() for 2011-2040 compared with 1971-2000.
The colour scale is the one shown at the bottom of the figure.
Bottom left:
Change in ensemble mean
() for 2041-2070 compared with 1971-2000.
Bottom right:
Change in ensemble mean
() for
compared with 1971-2000.
|