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Climate scenarios
Climate scenarios
The results from SMHI’s climate research at the Rossby Centre are found here. Climate scenarios are presented on maps, as diagrams and as downloadable data. There is also information explaining the results and how they have been reached. An introduction to climate scenarios is available (in Swedish) on the page Om klimatscenarier. There is also a guidance (in Swedish) that provides support for interpreting and using climate scenarios.
| Area | Scenario |
Season |
Climate index |
| World South America Southwestern Asia Africa Arctic Europe Sweden
County
District River basin |
RCP2.6 (low) RCP4.5 (medium) RCP8.5 (high) SRES A1B (medium, older) |
Winter Spring Summer Autumn Year |
|
Change in
Calculated change in
compared with 1971-2000.
The map is based on an
ensemble with
climate scenarios
.
The maps below show more information about the ensembles as well as for other time periods.
Enlarge image
|
The diagram shows the calculated change in
during the years 1961-2100 compared with normal (mean for 1961-1990).
The black line shows the
ensemble mean of
climate scenarios for the
scenario. The grey field shows the range in variation between the highest and lowest value for the members of the ensemble.
The climate scenarios are produced using the regional
climate model
, which has been used with initial conditions taken from different global climate models.
Download the diagram data in Excel formatScenario data 1961-2100 |
Reliability of the results
The maps below describe the variation between the
climate scenarios that are members of the
ensemble. The maps show the change as an ensemble mean, but also how much the individual climate model runs differ from the mean.
The climate scenarios are produced using the regional climate model
, which has been initialised from
different global climate models.
The ensemble spread for the
Enlarge image
Top left:
Ensemble mean (mm) for the control period 1971-2000.
The average of the during the control period 1971-2000 for the climate scenarios in the ensemble.
Top right:
Change in ensemble mean (
)
compared with 1971-2000.
This is the same map as the one at the top of the page.
Bottom left:
Standard deviation (mm) for members of the ensemble
.
The standard deviation is a measure of the spread of the climate scenarios in the ensemble. If the values of all members lie close to the mean, then the standard deviation is low, but if the values are spread far above and below the mean then the standard deviation is high.
Bottom right:
Number of climate scenarios in the ensemble that show an increase
compared to the control period 1971-2000.
If all members of the ensemble show an increase for the future scenario for a grid square, then a certain amount of robustness/certainty can be assumed for the result there. The same applies if all members indicate a decrease. However, if for example show a decrease, this means that the members disagree and the result is uncertain. Development of the results over time
The maps below show how the
can change with time according to the
scenario.
The information is based on an ensemble of
climate scenarios.
The climate scenarios are produced using the regional climate model
, which has been initialised from
different global climate models.
Development over time of the ensemble mean for the for the scenario
Enlarge image
Top left:
Ensemble mean (mm) for the control period 1971-2000.
The average of the during the control period 1971-2000 for the climate scenarios in the ensemble. Note that the colour scale is shown to the left of the map.
Top right:
Change in ensemble mean
() for 2011-2040 compared with 1971-2000.
The colour scale is the one shown at the bottom of the figure.
Bottom left:
Change in ensemble mean
() for 2041-2070 compared with 1971-2000.
Bottom right:
Change in ensemble mean
() for
compared with 1971-2000.
|