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Climate scenarios

The results from SMHI’s climate research at the Rossby Centre are found here. Climate scenarios are presented on maps, as diagrams and as downloadable data. There is also information explaining the results and how they have been reached. An introduction to climate scenarios is available (in Swedish) on the page Om klimatscenarier. There is also a guidance (in Swedish) that provides support for interpreting and using climate scenarios.

Click in the blue box below to select a geographical area, scenario, season and climate index.

Area Scenarioinfoimg Seasoninfoimg Climate indexinfoimg
 World
 Southwestern Asia
 Africa
 Arctic
 Europe
 Sweden
 County
 District
 River basin
 RCP2.6 (low)
 RCP4.5 (medium)
 RCP8.5 (high)
 +2°C (more info)
 SRES A1B (medium, older)
 Winter
 Spring
 Summer
 Autumn
 Year
Read more about temperature

Change in

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Calculated change in compared with 1971-2000.compared to 1971-2000 at the period for 2°C global warming according to scenario RCP8.5 (read more).
The map is based on an ensemble with climate scenarios .
The map is based on an ensemble with climate scenarios at a global warming of 2°C compared to the period 1881-1910.
The maps below show more information about the ensembles as well as for other time periods.
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diagram
Global temperature increase compared to 1881-1910 according to nine different climate models according to scenario RCP8.5 (coloured lines) and the average of the model ensemble (black line). The thirty year period representing two degrees warming are show as horizontal lines of the same colours as the respective models.
Internationally there is an ambition to limit the increase in global average temperature to below two degrees compared to pre-industrial levels. Since the global temperature increase of two degrees is just an average it is interesting to look at the temperature increase at regional scale in Europe and Sweden (read more).
The diagram shows the calculated change in during the years 1961-2100 compared with normal (mean for 1961-1990).
The bars show historic data from observations. The red bars show temperatures above normal and the blue bars show temperatures below normal.
The black line shows the ensemble mean of climate scenarios for the scenario. The grey field shows the range in variation between the highest and lowest value for the members of the ensemble.
The climate scenarios are produced using the regional climate model , which has been used with initial conditions taken from different global climate models.
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Reliability of the results

The maps below describe the variation between the climate scenarios that are members of the ensemble. The maps show the change as an ensemble mean, but also how much the individual climate model runs differ from the mean.
The climate scenarios are produced using the regional climate model , which has been initialised from different global climate models.

The ensemble spread for the


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Top left:
Ensemble mean (°C) for the control period 1971-2000.
The average of the during the control period 1971-2000 for the climate scenarios in the ensemble.
Top right:
Change in ensemble mean () compared with 1971-2000compared to 1971-2000 at the period for 2°C global warming according to scenario RCP8.5 (read more).
This is the same map as the one at the top of the page.
Bottom left:
Standard deviation (°C) for members of the ensemble .
The standard deviation is a measure of the spread of the climate scenarios in the ensemble. If the values of all members lie close to the mean, then the standard deviation is low, but if the values are spread far above and below the mean then the standard deviation is high.
Bottom right:
Number of climate scenarios in the ensemble that show an increase compared to the control period 1971-2000.
If all members of the ensemble show an increase for the future scenario for a grid square, then a certain amount of robustness/certainty can be assumed for the result there. The same applies if all members indicate a decrease. However, if for example show a decrease, this means that the members disagree and the result is uncertain.


Development of the results over time

The maps below show how the can change with time according to the scenario.
The information is based on an ensemble of climate scenarios.
The climate scenarios are produced using the regional climate model , which has been initialised from different global climate models.

Development over time of the ensemble mean for the for the scenario


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Top left:
Ensemble mean (°C) for the control period 1971-2000.
The average of the during the control period 1971-2000 for the climate scenarios in the ensemble. Note that the colour scale is shown to the left of the map.
Top right:
Change in ensemble mean () for 2011-2040 compared with 1971-2000.
The colour scale is the one shown at the bottom of the figure.
Bottom left:
Change in ensemble mean () for 2041-2070 compared with 1971-2000.
Bottom right:
Change in ensemble mean () for compared with 1971-2000.